Hypothesis testing: p-values

Semester 2 - Week 2

1 Tasks

The data dataset-ipeds-2012-subset2, available at https://uoepsy.github.io/data/dataset-ipeds-2012-subset2.csv, is a subset of data derived from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) at the National Center for Education Statistics, 2012. The data were collected for a random sample from all colleges and universities in the United States in that year. The variables include:

Variable Description
type College Type:
−1 = Not reported;
1 = Public;
2 = Private for-profit;
3 = Private not-for-profit (no religious affiliation);
4 = Private not-for-profit (religious affiliation)
region Region:
0 = US Service schools;
1 = New England;
2 = Mid East;
3 = Great Lakes;
4 = Plains;
5 = Southeast;
6 = Southwest;
7 = Rocky Mountains;
8 = Far West;
9 = Outlying areas
gradrate Graduation Rate – All
gradratem Graduation Rate – Men
gradratew Graduation Rate – Women

In formative report C, you will investigate the mean graduation rate for female students at colleges and universities in the United States. Specifically, you are asked to perform the following tasks, each related to a week of teaching in this course.

This week you will only focus on task C2.

C1) Read the data into R, describe the variable of interest both visually and numerically, and provide a 95% CI for the mean graduation rate of female students at colleges and universities in the United States.

This week’s task

C2) At the 5% significance level and using the p-value method, test whether the mean graduation rate for female students at colleges and universities in the United States is significantly different from a rate of 50 percent.

C3) At the 5% significance level and using the critical value method, test whether the mean graduation rate for female students at colleges and universities in the United States is significantly different from a rate of 50 percent.
C4) Tidy up your report so far, making sure to have 3 sections: introduction, analysis and discussion.
C5) Compute and report the effect size, check if the assumptions underlying the t-test are violated.

2 C2 sub-tasks

In this section you will find some guided sub-steps you may want to consider to complete task C2.

Tip

To see the hints, hover your cursor on the superscript numbers.

  • Reopen last week’s Rmd file, as you will continue last week’s work and build on it.1
  • State the null and alternative hypotheses.2
  • Compute the value of the t-statistic from the sample mean graduation rate of female students.3

  • Identify the null distribution.4

  • Compute the p-value for the test.5

  • Using a 5% significance level, i.e. \(\alpha = 0.05\) make a decision on whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.6

  • Provide a write up of your results in the context of the research question.

  • Update the report introduction to also include information about the second question being investigated, i.e. whether the mean graduation rate for female students at colleges and universities in the United States is significantly different from a rate of 50 percent.

3 Worked Example

The Procrastination Assessment Scale for Students (PASS) was designed to assess how individuals approach decision situations, specifically the tendency of individuals to postpone decisions (Solomon & Rothblum, 1984).

The PASS assesses the prevalence of procrastination in six areas: writing a paper; studying for an exam; keeping up with reading; administrative tasks; attending meetings; and performing general tasks. For a measure of total endorsement of procrastination, responses to 18 questions (each measured on a 1-5 scale) are summed together, providing a single score for each participant (range 0 to 90). The mean score from Solomon & Rothblum, 1984 was 33.

Research question:

Does the mean procrastination score of Edinburgh University students differ from the Solomon & Rothblum average of 33?

To answer this question, we will use data collected for a random sample of students from the University of Edinburgh: https://uoepsy.github.io/data/pass_scores.csv

Variable Name Description
sid Subject identifier
school School each subject belonged to
PASS Total endorsement of procrastination score

Necessary packages:

  • tidyverse for using read_csv(), using summarise() and ggplot().
  • patchwork for arranging plots side by side or underneath
  • kableExtra for creating user-friendly tables

Read the data into R:

pass_scores <- read_csv("https://uoepsy.github.io/data/pass_scores.csv")
dim(pass_scores)
[1] 20  3

To inspect the data:

head(pass_scores)
# A tibble: 6 × 3
  sid   school       PASS
  <chr> <chr>       <dbl>
1 s_1   GeoSciences    31
2 s_2   ECA            24
3 s_3   LAW            32
4 s_4   ECA            40
5 s_5   LAW            28
6 s_6   SSPS           31
glimpse(pass_scores)
Rows: 20
Columns: 3
$ sid    <chr> "s_1", "s_2", "s_3", "s_4", "s_5", "s_6", "s_7", "s_8", "s_9", …
$ school <chr> "GeoSciences", "ECA", "LAW", "ECA", "LAW", "SSPS", "PPLS", "SLL…
$ PASS   <dbl> 31, 24, 32, 40, 28, 31, 30, 28, 32, 29, 28, 33, 35, 33, 30, 31,…
summary(pass_scores)
     sid               school               PASS      
 Length:20          Length:20          Min.   :24.00  
 Class :character   Class :character   1st Qu.:28.75  
 Mode  :character   Mode  :character   Median :31.00  
                                       Mean   :30.70  
                                       3rd Qu.:32.00  
                                       Max.   :40.00

Visualise the distribution of PASS scores:

Note

The boxplot highlights an outlier (40). However, this value is well within the plausible range of the scale (0 – 90), hence it is of no concern and the point can be kept for the analysis.

plt_hist <- ggplot(pass_scores, aes(x = PASS)) + 
    geom_histogram(color = 'white')

plt_box <- ggplot(pass_scores, aes(x = PASS)) + 
    geom_boxplot()

plt_hist / plt_box

Descriptive statistics:

stats <- pass_scores %>%
    summarise(n = n(),
              Min = min(PASS),
              Max = max(PASS),
              M = mean(PASS),
              SD = sd(PASS))
stats %>%
    kbl(booktabs = TRUE, digits = 2, 
        caption = "Descriptive statistics for PASS scores")
Descriptive statistics for PASS scores
n Min Max M SD
20 24 40 30.7 3.31

Step 1: Identify the null and alternative hypotheses.

First we need to write the null and alternative hypothesis, which take the form \(H_0 : \mu = \mu_0\) vs \(H_1: \mu \neq \mu_0\). From the research question, we identify the hypothesised value \(\mu_0\) to be 33, hence:

These are written as:

$$H_{0}: \mu = 33$$
$$H_{1}: \mu \neq 33$$

In H_{0} and H_{1} the 0 and 1 within curly braces are written as subscripts. The curly braces delimit what goes in the subscript. The symbol \mu denotes the greek letter “mu” that stands for the population mean (a parameter). The symbol \neq means not equal.

\[H_0: \mu = 33\] \[H_1: \mu \neq 33\]

Step 2: Compute the t-statistic

Next, we compute the t-statistics, which compares the difference between the sample and hypothesised mean (\(\bar{x} - \mu_0\)) to the variation due to random sampling (\(SE_{\bar{x}}\)).

To test the hypothesis, we need to compute the t-statistic,

\[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{SE_{\bar{x}}} \qquad \text{where} \qquad SE_{\bar{x}} = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]

# Sample mean
xbar <- stats$M

# Standard error
s <- stats$SD
n <- stats$n
se <- s / sqrt(n)

# Observed t-statistic
tobs <- (xbar - 33) / se
tobs
[1] -3.107272

Step 3: Identify the null distribution, i.e. the distribution of the t-statistic assuming the null to be true.

As the sample size is \(n =\) 20, if the null hypothesis is true the t-statistic will follow a t(19) distribution.

Step 4: Compute the p-value

As the alternative hypothesis is two-sided (or two-tailed), we can compute the p-value as twice the area to the right of abs(tobs).

2 * pt(abs(tobs), df = n - 1, lower.tail = FALSE)
[1] 0.005800318

Step 5: Make a decision

Using the p-value method, we compare the p-value with the significance level (\(\alpha = 0.05\) in this case). As 0.005800318 < 0.05, we reject \(H_0\). Please note this is just an explanation and not how you would write up the result!

We can update the example introduction to add the new question investigated:

Example introduction

A random sample of 20 students from the University of Edinburgh completed a questionnaire measuring their total endorsement of procrastination. The data, available from https://uoepsy.github.io/data/pass_scores.csv, were used to estimate the average procrastination score of all Edinburgh University students, and whether the mean procrastination score differed from the Solomon & Rothblum reported average of 33 at the 5% significance level. The recorded variables included a subject identifier (sid), the school of each subject (school), and the total score on the Procrastination Assessment Scale for Students (PASS). The data do not include any impossible values for the PASS scores, as they were all within the possible range of 0 – 90. To answer the question of interest, in the following we will only focus on the total PASS score variable.

And this is a potential way to report the t-test results:

Example hypothesis test write-up

At the 5% significance level, the sample data provide very strong evidence against the null hypothesis and in favour of the alternative one that the mean procrastination score of Edinburgh University students is different from the Solomon & Rothblum reported average of 33: \(t(19) = -3.11, p = .006\), two-sided.

4 Student Glossary

To conclude the lab, add the new functions to the glossary of R functions.

Function Use and package
geom_histogram ?
geom_boxplot ?
summarise ?
n() ?
mean ?
sd ?
abs ?
pt ?

Footnotes

  1. Hint: Ask last week’s driver for the Rmd file, they should share it with the group via email or Teams. To download the file from the server, go to the RStudio Files pane, tick the box next to the Rmd file, and select More > Export.↩︎

  2. Hint: Identify the hypothesised value of the mean, \(\mu_0\), and replace that value in the following equations:

    \[H_{0} : \mu = \mu_{0}\] \[H_{1} : \mu \neq \mu_{0}\]

    The equations can be written with the following code, where the text within curly braces after an underscore is rendered as a subscript:

    $$ H_{0} : \mu = \mu_{0} $$
$$ H_{1} : \mu \neq \mu_{0} $$
    ↩︎

  3. Hint: Use the following formula for the t-statistic:

    \[t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{SE_{\bar{x}}} \qquad \text{where} \qquad SE_{\bar{x}} = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\]

    In the above:

    • \(\bar{x}\) is the sample mean
    • \(\mu_0\) is the hypothesised value for the population mean
    • \(s\) is the sample standard deviation
    • \(n\) is the sample size
    ↩︎

  4. Hint: the t-statistic follows a \(t(n-1)\) distribution where \(n-1\) is the degrees of freedom.
    The question asks you: what are the degrees of freedom to use in the t distribution?↩︎

  5. Hint: the pt() function will be useful↩︎

  6. Hint: compare the p-value with the significance level.
    If p-value \(\leq \alpha\), reject. Otherwise, do not reject.↩︎